Hi Amanda, nice article. Whilst I wholeheartedly agree that velocity is a naive metric to follow, and like some of the options that you presented, I have to disagree with burndown or anything that resembles it. The reason is that as long a product exists, new requirements will be added, or new insights will generate new work for the team. Burndown is simply a poor way to predict project completion. I realize that's not the main focus of your article, but you mention it early, and I thought it was worth commenting on. The same concept reappears in the backlog category of the cumulative flow diag later, so perhaps you could think about this more deeply? I've also written a similar article that you might find relevant.

https://levelup.gitconnected.com/agile-success-theater-aff49d1e171d